Remember never forget the power of greed and fear, and the propensity for investors wanting to own stocks (taking long-side) and fund managers chasing performance as we saw today especially if they think the bull-train is pulling away they will want to hop on board.  Please, remember when in doubt as to market conditions/direction CASH is always king (or queen depending on your gender J ) please trade cautiously and be quick to protect your profits. I’m guessing that this the days ahead we will become embroiled in a major bull-bear battle as we head into earning season.

This is options expiration week, so we need to expect the unexpected… I would be very cautious about new positions (as the whipsawing could be extreme this week) so I would only look to buy strong support and sell significant OHR as the volatility is likely to continue until traders become immune to the daily news from Europe. Sentiment was significantly damaged to weeks ago during that mysterious Thursday crash and that suggests the path of least resistance is still down. I still see (from a retail perspective) is no compelling reason to rush back into the markets; so please remain very cautious until a real trend develops (I believe the trend will be significantly down after this week's expiration, only time will tell if I'm right!  

The selling during the past several days was blamed on the possible disintegration of the Eurozone, and if this contagion mitigates over the weekend into next week, so should the selling. Reportedly France's  President Sarkozy threatened to pull out of the EU this past week if Germany didn't go along with the bailout (likely just rash talk); however there were increscent rumors of other countries threatening to pull out on Friday, one reason for the market's weakness, and the deterioration of the Euro vs. the dollar…I'm betting that many of these rumors were probably started by prop-desk traders (currency traders) short the euro, long the greenback nevertheless the markets responded very negatively (a market looking for reasons to sell will always find one).

The euro fell to a 19 month low on Friday (I took a long position into the close as I thought it was overdone) as concerns increased that the Euro-zone was going to disband. The euro dropped to $1.2355 intraday (I went long early at $1.2375 close to a four year low; then after the close I heard analysts stating that it could hit $1.17 or $1.15 by summer.

The EU contagion is like the Lehman/Bear debacle as once the lecherous bankers/banks and brokerages smelling blood they refused to loan to anyone until they are sure it is safe or the taxpayers assume the risks. And we saw that Lehman and others were deprived of funding they needed to stay alive; and after our debacle it took nearly 11-months before banks started lending to each other again, and the rate is still anemic.

Adding to the mess we saw that Volcker raised doubts over the euro's long-term prospects, "You have the great problem of potential disintegration of the euro." he stated also "The essential element of discipline in economic policy and in fiscal policy that was hoped for" has not occurred. (hell no one is more undisciplined than our nation)….nevertheless all 16 of the EU countries are in violation of the Euro-zone's economic rule regarding deficit limits of not more than 3%; as the average is 6.93% and they are all (like we are) just kicking the proverbial debt can down the road. I strongly suggest you click this link for a power-point presentation  outlining the major EU fiscal problems, as it's not a pretty sight as all (so please do not review this on an empty stomach).

Hell the Governor "terminator" of California on Friday compared the state's predicament to that of weaker euro zone economies and called for scrapping the state welfare system to close a $19.1 billion budget gap, he wants to break all the promises made to those state workers and teachers as well; and he would like to open up the boarders to lower cost labor alternatives!  (a few links to the California crisis coming….(link,  link, link )

Now let's review the potential market contagions as they are important to understand for the longer term outlook of the earnings scenario for our multinationals….The EU accounts for 16.95% of U.S. exports, while the EU crisis is good for the U.S. in some instances, as mortgage rates sank to their lowest point since December on the flight to the dollar and the buying of U.S. bonds (this is only temporary though); and stronger greenback and low oil prices suggests the Fed will see no reason to raise rates any time soon (good for the banks, bad for fixed income investors); but profits generated by firms overseas will be adversely impacted by the weak Euro and strong dollar!.

This week we have several key economic reports due to be released the PPI and CPI will be out on Tuesday/Wednesday respectively however since there is no inflation according to the Fed as they live with Alice in Wonderland, we do not need to fear these reports right?  The big report for the week is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as these are the minutes of the April meeting and they will be scoured for any clues of a future change in their bias (hell they are so tied into to being the servants of the major banks, they will only move when they are told to). Since the Fed kept the "extended period" language I seriously doubt there will be anything material in the minutes but they could be a market mover if something does appear.

It is not very hard for me to wrap my head around the possibility that we actually have what looks like a failed double bounce top in the major indexes; however I'm very skittish about it as these manipulative prop-trading desks have ruled the roost for so long. These patterns of anemic-volume, gap-runs straight back up through overhead resistance has been so consistent for so long that it is difficult to trust the charts, even though this bearish setup was exactly what one would expect to see in the technical analysis book, classified under the heading no-brainer! But these markets are so rigged right now, that the only no-brainer is being brain-dead and not believing for one moment that these leeches could not (will not) run the markets higher through options expiration, it's this possibility that has me very nervous as the recent Wiley Coyote drop off a cliff 2-weeks ago has created a huge spike in volatility and a huge swell of option write/sells under water!   

The reason that solid-technicals should work, and sentiment-technicals should work as well is that the breakdown 2-weeks ago was so swift and severe and headline grabbing; we simply cannot expect market participants to shrug it off easily. Many market participants were caught by surprise, and the normal emotional reaction (this is the segment of trading, called trying to read sentiment, as its 60% of the market's tone and trend moves) is for them to reduce market exposure and to book some of the huge built up profits they have accrued before the markets/indexes take these profits away, as I look for some renewed selling in a significant manner after options expiration week, especially after this week's mega-short squeeze bounce back.  I have found that relief rallies after a big breakdown tend to fail because there are way too many trapped bagholders who will now want out. Obviously, such psychology of investor sentiment is questionable, with such blatant manipulation but this time it should still apply.  The question now that we need to ponder is whether this faltering bounce means that we end up filling the mega gap that was created this past Monday due to the European market manipulators as gaps like we saw tend to be filled within 10-trading secessions. The other rule of a failed relief rally is that once a relief rally fails, we tend to retest the lows.

Of course we have the program trading dip-buyers in this market have been all too consistent (almost like they have been given a green-light, where they cannot lose mentality) and they have been very aggressive as they feel to allow the market-gods will always smile brightly upon them; as such this dip-buying approach has been such a consistent winner during the past 9-12 months that you can bet the bullish market players (like GS, JPM and MS, who have not had a losing day since the rally started back in 2009) have already been fine tuning their proverbial shopping list and their buy-fingers will likely be on the buy button, if we survive the weekend  without a major blow up in the Euro zone.

I'm betting though that many of last week's relief rally-buyers are feeling trapped with the selling on Friday but this relentless bull market has consistently bailed out their irrational actions so often that I am guessing that there are many holding on tightly to their recent buys as they are quite confident that we'll retest and move above the recent relative highs again very soon; many believe it will happen this week! If the markets don't come roaring back up soon, there are going to be a lot of market participants who will get very spooked!

The trading operations of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase made money every single business day in the first quarter, a feat that historic a first for both firm's history and underlines the huge trading activities in Wall Street’s to-big-to-fail banking firms, with of course insider info as they have infiltrated all branches of our government.  Goldman’s trading desk recorded a profit of at least $25-million in each of the quarter’s 63 trading days, making more than $100-million on 35 occasions, according to a regulatory filing issued on Monday 5/10/2010.

And get this Goldman (the firm doing god's work, their words not mine) really doesn't care who they step on to make their money, even following a series of regulatory probes into Goldman’s trading activities (they are still taking positions with insider info and advance flow data, hell they have an abundance of stealth clearing firms, that most are unaware of), which should fuel a huge wave of criticism of its business model and market behavior, as they are in my opinion the cream of the crop of Wall-Street whores.  I was surprised to see that JP Morgan strangely also achieved a loss-free quarter in their trading unit; making an average of $119-million a day, nearly $18-million a trading hour.

Goldman’s executives said the trading performance had been due to its robust risk management and booming markets. The 14 largest global investment banks (the too-big-to-fail gang) reported $78.8-billion first-quarter revenues, their best numbers in over 3-years and just 1.0% shy of the record (is this repeatable, I doubt it, but then again they are the insiders, front running all other traders and investors…and they are back-stopped by taxpayers when they take on monstrous risk). 

I believe this data and huge boasting will in my opinion result in a host of unwarranted negative contagions as their trading revenues (that were gotten likely taking positions front-running clients) might give ammunition to politicians who want to impose a global banking regulations on such activities and the probability of nasty windfall taxes on these massive gains, as well as strengthening the hand of regulators seeking to force banks to hold more capital and liquid assets against future contagions, and to separate their trading activities from banking activities. At a time when many individuals are still having to tighten their proverbial belts as their balance sheets are deteriorating….this increases the attraction of forcing the banks to carry a higher share of the burden and pay more for their speculative bets with shareholder/share-draft holder monies!

The government's bank bailout program may have helped big financial institutions weather the credit crisis but has failed in getting money to small businesses, the head of the commission overseeing the fund told CNBC. Elizabeth Warren called it "infuriating" that the Troubled Asset Relief Program has not achieved its objective in funneling the majority of the $700 billion in appropriations to small businesses.

A report the commission released Thursday found that big-bank lending portfolios to small businesses dropped 9% from 2008 to 2009, more than double the 4.1% of its overall lending portfolio. "Two out of every three new jobs created in America come out of a small business; 50% of the private work force is in small business," Warren stated this week. "If they don't have access to credit it's not only a significant problem for them now, but they can't help fund the recovery." The report found that many Treasury Department TARP initiatives to get money to small businesses have proven ineffective, in part because banks were not required to lend the billions they had received in capital through the bailout program. Heck they are having to much fun generating mega profits manipulating the markets through their huge pro-trading desks, why lend out capital that can be used to trade! She warned that the consequences could be dire if the lending disparity isn't evened out. "If we play that out over time and there's more money available to big businesses and less money available to small businesses, we really end up tilting the playing field...and that's not going to help us in a sustained recovery," she said.

Why are the Europeans so worried about the massive bailout….hell it will all go to the people right, the taxpayer bailouts will, help to create more jobs, improve infrastructure, and stabilize the economies right…all they have to do is look at what out taxpayer bailouts have done! 

Then again maybe they have seen our massive Ponzi-scheme for what it truly was, a scheme perpetuated on the American public by the chicken-little antic's of Hank-Paulson and B-52 Ben Bernanke as, the $700 billion dollar TARP bailout was a massive bait-and-switch stealth program, as even slow to grasp the situation politicians are now seeing it for what it was…a wall-street bailout!

Sen. John McCain of Arizona ... says he was misled by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. McCain said the pair assured him that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program would focus on what was seen as the cause of the financial crisis, the housing meltdown.   

Our most trusted government officials are now being unveiled as bold face liars (too bad many are oblivious to the fact), as they repeatedly stated that they were taking these actions to mop up and soak-up the huge spill of toxic assets, and then they switched their tune to that of saying the massive taxpayer bailout was needed to free up lending which had stalled due to the zombie state of the banks, and we had to make it easier for them to lend, so they would lend to small business, homeowners ad keep the economy forging ahead. Well it should be no surprise that it didn't meet that end-point either, just the opposite as we have seen that: Banks that received federal assistance during the financial crisis reduced lending more aggressively and gave bigger pay raises to employees than institutions that didn't get aid, a USA TODAY/American University review found.

• Lending fell. The amount of loans outstanding to businesses and individuals fell 9.1% for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2009, at banks that participated in TARP compared with a 6.2% drop at banks that didn't.

• Employee pay rose. Average pay at banks getting aid rose 9.4% in the program's first year. By contrast, non-TARP banks increased salaries 1.8%.

• Cost-cutting limited. Banks in TARP cut costs less than those outside the program. Government-aided banks increased branches by 2.7% while non-TARP banks cut branches by 1.2%

And worse yet the head of the World's largest bank, the Federal Reserve really doesn't want the banks to lend. Here's an interesting fact that you may not have seen yet. The M1 money multiplier slipped below 1, and this is not a helpful contributor for our economy as each $1 increase in reserves (our monetary base) results in the money supply increasing by a mere $0.94 (so we have seen that banks have substantially increased their holding of excess reserves while the M1 money supply hasn't changed much **see data**)…Since January 2009, the M1 Money Multiplier has crashed, if you look at the following chart!

This is very basic economics, as the banks continue to horde reserves and that means that for every $1 increase in the monetary base, the money supply only increases by $0.78….and this serious diminished the velocity of money (The velocity of money (also called velocity of circulation) is the average frequency with which money is spent [in the economy] in a specific period of time; as such velocity associates the amount of economic activity associated with a given money supply.) This calculation/indicator helps investors gauge how robust the economy is. It is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money. 

So before you ask the question why is M1 crashing….I will provide a simple answer….Because the banks continue to build up their excess reserves, instead of lending out money…as they know that their balance sheets are deteriorating significantly, much more than the pro forma accounting shenanigans have allowed insight into! And they care more about their internal generation of profits for the insiders, than lending out money. Oh and I forgot that their excess reserves are then deposited at the Fed, The Federal Reserve Banks pay interest on required reserve balances; balances held at Reserve Banks to satisfy reserve requirements, that they impose, and on excess balances, balances held in excess of required reserve balances and contractual clearing balances.

Since September 2008, the amount of reserves in the U.S. banking system has grown dramatically, as shown above prior to the onset of the financial crisis, required reserves were about $40 billion and excess reserves were roughly $1.5 billion. Excess reserves spiked to around $9 billion in August 2007, but then quickly returned to pre-crisis levels and remained there until the middle of September 2008. Following the collapse of Lehman, total reserves began to grow rapidly, climbing above $900 billion by January 2009. As the figure shows, almost all of the increase was in excess reserves…(hum, so this is where the taxpayer bailout money went). While required reserves rose from $44 billion to $60 billion over this period, this change was dwarfed by the large and unprecedented rise in excess reserves.

The data tells us that the current economic conditions and bank lending is deteriorating. The large increase in excess reserves implies that many of the policies introduced by the Fed-Heads especially the front man so called the B-52 man (throwing free and easy money from massive bombers) Bernanke in response to the financial crisis (which they were mostly responsible for creating) have been mostly ineffective. Rather than promoting the flow of credit to firms and households (as they were supposed to do) and the primary reason that they argued the TARP money/bailout money was to be used for! The data indicates that the money lent to banks and other intermediaries by the Fed since September 2008 is simply sitting idle in the various banks’ reserve accounts. This high level of excess reserves is one of the contagions behind the continuing credit debacle. So you ask why banks are choosing to hold so many reserves instead of lending them out, it's simple they are utilizing these funds to fund their prop-desk-trading accounts for the most-part!  I believe that this activity must be stopped and that banks must be forced/induced to lend their excess reserves to American-consumers and small-businesses as it is extremely crucial for resolving the credit crisis for the long haul.  

Bailout…Money from the taxpayers just went to line the pockets of the big lecherous bankers, the very wealthy lending firms and other too-big-to fail SOB's, instead of helping to stabilize the economy or to help small, medium  business prosper to help others with jobs and livelihoods 

In reality the markets have wised up, as real savvy participants watched what happened in the US and expect the same to happen abroad in the Euro zone…as the bailout money was basically used to subsidize firms run by lecherous greedy business men, allowing the bankers to receive fat bonuses, and expensive toys, worse yet a lot of the bailout money went to the failing firms large institutional shareholders (the very same banks, insurance firms mutual funds etc.) As we saw almost 17% of the TARP bailout money was merely passed through AIG to their so called derivative trading partners, Goldman was a biggie as they were made 100% whole. 

So you ask how could this happen….by law, the Fed-heads are not allowed to buy assets, so they created a smoke & mirrors new entity, as by law they can only lend, and they are the so called lender of last resort. So they developed a new vehicle for the Bear Stearns bailout, as JP Morgan said they would only buy Bear if someone else (meaning the taxpayers) would assume the responsibility for the crap they had on their balance sheet. So the Fed came up with a novel idea to start a shadow company, called a special purpose vehicle (SPV) the same premise that the most respectable firm on Wall-Street did they were called "Enron" as this was exactly as how that operated! The New York Fed called their SPV "Maiden Lane LLC" the deal then was for JP Morgan put $1 billion into Maiden Lane, and magically the Fed put $29 billion in cash into it. Then Maiden Lane paid Bear Stearns $30 billion, which went straight back to JP Morgan as this deal happened simultaneously to JP's purchase of Bear…wow, if the public only realized the shell/shame game these asses were playing. So the next domino dropped as JP Morgan got a mysterious $30 billion in cash infusion ($29 billion net, as they put up $1-billion) and the Fed got stuck owning the toxic assets better known as crap, and they bragged about this end run as they stated repeatedly it was legal as they were only making a loan to Maiden Lane, who was the legal owner (Maiden Lane was incorporated not in NYC, but in Delaware to avoid paying taxes of course). So you would have thought that it stopped here right….well you would be dead wrong!  

The lecherous bankers liked the shenanigans…they loved this so called loophole as did the accomplices at the FED, as they had learned during Bear Stearns how to scam the American taxpayers, so the Fed set up two new stealth firms called Maiden Lane II and Maiden Lane III….to help bail out the AIG's investors, and the bankers who were caught with their proverbial pants down. The Fed lent each Maiden Lane fictitious firm $20 billion and $25 billion and then Maiden Lane paid off the investors that had either lent AIG the money to buy the shitty mortgage backed securities (MBS's) and those who had the shitty mortgages and the corresponding insurance. Now this was orchestrated on paper to avoid booking a loss on the Fed's balance sheet, because the Fed has some legal problems if either of these Maiden Lanes lost money, and because of a reporting requirement that Dodd had put into TARP which actually required the Fed to report to the Congress and the public about the cost to taxpayers from their candy store operations, so then the Fed did some very creative off balance sheet accounting to mask what they had done….as these so called bankers of the people are nothing more than over-priced financial prostitutes in my opinion. They managed to pay all of the investors off at full value (par), so that they didn't lose anything (they meaning Goldman Sachs and the other greedy overleveraged bankers and derivative trading partners/parties). And then they got real cute as they booked the loss on AIG's balance sheet and kept Maiden Lane out of the frying pan so to speak. This is the hidden truth behind how AIG went from losing $38 billion during the first 9 months of 2008 to losing a whopping $61 billion in the 4th quarter, but you will never hear it on bubblevision as they are just paid cheerleaders. The Fed is still refusing to indicate the others it bailed out through Maiden Lane II and III….as they claim that we the people do not have a right or need to know and that they are above the law of the land. So you can see why I'm so ticked-off at these shell game practices, and the massive bait-switch that Hank-Paulson (now Geithner)  and Bernanke and company have played on the American public….In other words, through their little shell game taxpayer money went straight into the pockets of investors in AIG's credit default swaps and the results have been little to no stabilization of AIG. 

So it's very easy to conclude, from the facts that one of the biggest purpose of the bank rescue plan was a massive redistribution of wealth to the bank shareholders and their top executives, this is why I get so upset at their rhetoric that they are great Americans and as Goldman's CEO stated he's doing God's work!  

And the nightmare/story get better the Treasury Department strongly encouraged banks to use the taxpayer bailout money to buy up their competition, and they even pushed through an amendment to the tax laws which rewarded favorably these mergers within the banking industry….it's estimated that the banks received almost $40-billion in future tax-benefits (this has caused a lot of firms to bite off huge contagions that they failed to think through, far more than they can digest, and it has led to destabilization more than we have seen as they have yet to report all the contagions…at the acquiring firms…another reason I'm bearish on the financials)  Remember this private leech is also guaranteeing a very fat spread on interest rates as they keep the Fed-funds rate near zero!

We saw a report on Wednesday that showed that Gold exchange-traded funds, including the popular SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), have seen more than 2.3-billion in net inflows in the past (6)trading days which by the survey ended on Monday. TrimTabs Investment Research said that the net inflows into gold ETFs are the highest in over 12 months. Last Thursday during the near 1,000-point plunge off the cliff in the indexes, gold ETFs saw net inflows of $1.1-billion, TrimTabs stated. Spot gold surged to a record high today as investors sought safety from the risk of Greece's debt crisis (hell I thought the all clear buzzer was sounded) spreading to other countries. Spot gold touched a new high of $1,249.00, which marked a nearly 20% gain since February, clearly a trend in a bull market, but I believe the best is close to being baked in as we could have a move to $1,250-$1,255 before the bottom is pulled out **{we could see a blow-off-top at 1,285-1,300 but this would have to happen on a huge geopolitical contagion) and we drop back to $1,150+/- then $1,120+/- so if your late top the gold rush please be careful $1,175.

ETF traders are historically dumb money, as they feel ETF's are safe havens as such it’s a great contrarian indicator and investors can make money by simply betting against them. Historically I have seen that the component prices fall after equity ETFs rake in huge sums of money what I call "herd-money" and they rise after ETFs post heavy outflows…as such I like to use them as contrarian indicators. ETF traders especially the leveraged funds are daytrader and short-term positional traders elements of choice especially if they have decent volume and afford speculative momentum traders some leverage as such I have found them to be outstanding leading contrary indicator.

It has been shown through extensive research that there is a strong correlation between stock-ETF inflows and outflows and the SPX-500 returns.

I have found that when cash races into ETFs that short the various assets and indexes it’s a good bet that they will soon rise as smart money takes derivative bets against them and the underlying stocks or ETF's soon rebound, rise against the herd are set to rise….and unfortunately for buy/hold players in the ETF's and pro fund arena that use these instruments for more than the short term trades, they unfortunately come up losers as they fail to adhere to the infamous words of the Gambler (You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them…know when to walk away and know when to run…..Every gambler knows that the secret to survive is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep because every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser)   Simply put, ETF investors are way to often very-wrong in their directional calls as the smart money lures them in with dreams of grandeur, then pulls the rug out from under them!

ETFs are traded mostly by retail investors and day traders, who historically get the longer-term trends dead wrong as they buy at the tops and sell at the bottoms; they tend to be the least informed and most emotional market participants…they are easily enticed by the bubblevision cheerleaders into the markets at/near the tops as this is when the euphoria is running hot; and conversely they are spooked out of the markets when all the players being pranced about on the various bubblevision networks are talking about throwing in the towel, and these very players called the herd players as they move with a herd and are induced into playing in the markets due to greed…and the run because of fear, they are the ones most likely to lose money the majority of the time as they have almost always timed their entrance wrong, or they way overstay their welcome.

As I had previously forecasted The U.S. dollar has been embroiled in a very decent relief rally these past weeks/months as it has been enjoying a respite from its declining trend over the past several years, as evident on the dollar index charts below, it bounced from the 74.24 level as I had forecasted it would.  I'm expecting another bullish run in the near-term....back up to $86.00-87.00 (which is exactly what we saw this past week)  seen this before the next leg down starts...(ands we are very close to this level) if they break out the greenback out above $86.70 its clear sailing to $87.90....we gained 1.64 points on the week....or 1.94% .we are still in a bull-confirmed mode but this rally is getting tired a reversal here could help put a floor under commodities and the sector they support...

After forming a near perfect falling wedge pattern pattern, which is a TYPICAL reversal pattern...A primary reason why we undertook a contrarian long play at the $74.00-$74.50+/- level....just over 10+/-weeks ago I recommended buying that support at the climax of the weekly falling wedge-pattern.  As I stated then we were ripe  for a correction (I also recommended Shorting Gold and the metal-stocks especially (gold stocks, copper and other commodities); remember strength in the greenback depicts weakness in commodities, if demand holds steady      The Dollar index has breeched (moved above) the important $80.15 level **which is now near-term support** we could retested 80.50-81.00.  I believe that we will soon be reaching a top of this wave, (C-wave) and I expect it will happen this week and we could see a steep and deep retracement !

I have written that we must remain very diligent and watchful of this dollar index. The bottom line is the Dollar has broken out above the 38.2% retracement on the daily chart (see below) from within of its own bear market on 2 separate occasions. As I previously wrote when it breaks through the $81.69 (as it has done) it could easily make a run for $86.20 level (we hit this level this past week) if the rally keeps on due to the weakness in the  Euro and Euro-zone then $88.06 is the next level of OHR, as then the probability shifts to an anticipated longer term target of the 38.2% retracement from the 120.24 highs to the 71.75  which was the 2008 lows) thereafter the 32.8% retracement comes into play at 90.27./..highly unlikely on this leg though until we retrace back to $80.75-81.25 in my opinion!.

m sure the threat to the consumer has not fully abated because of all the foreclosures looming and additional job losses at the state and municipal levels (and of course the later withdrawal of employees once the census workers tasks expire), there are still hundreds of thousands of home loans still out there in the system that were originated during the subprime slime years and the ARM-years that will start to reset higher, back then the greenback (2003-2005) was trading in the 90’s to high 80’s…..in my opinion it's going to be a very nasty challenge for these people to pay back those loans with dollars earned with a dollar trading above 88.00 as the threat of a really strong greenback pushes the economy into a disinflationary than deflationary period the deeper we get into what I believe will be a massive and damaging ATM reset contagion cesspool and the nasty foreclosure wave that is approaching because as those easy dollar loans will get washed out of the system.  I stated 2-3 weeks ago that far to many folks were of the belief that the dollar rally was over, I was it total disagreement as I believed there’s was a good chance that the greenback rallies further another leg up…but a minor retracement is now in order, and it could take us back to the 79.15 level where we will resume the next leg higher in my humble opinion